Wed May 24th 2006 - Daily Market Analysis

The daily market analysis is a precursor to selecting which currency pairs to buy and sell. The daily market analysis is therefore ongoing but only published to the blog at select times throughout the day.

The selection process works as follows:
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1) Review the USD strength.

2) Examine all currency pairs for recent activity and the potential
for a breakout.

3) Set up alerts on the index and on key currency pairs.

4) Monitor the index and currency pairs for any additions, deletions, or
changes to the alert levels.

5) If an alert goes off, examine the currency pair associated with the alert and
make a decision to enter or exit a trade for that pair or wait for another event.

TODAYS ANALYSIS:
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USD Index
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Rising but not sharply.
This indicates a strengthening USD as noted by the increase in generally all currency
pairs against the USD at this time.

Set up alerts 10 pips above and below the USD index value of 85.11.
Set alerts at 85.21 and 85.01. If these go off, it could be nothing but generally it indicates
some significant change in the strength of the USD.

Currency Pairs with Possible Upcoming Breakout
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At 20:00 on May 24, 2006, the pairs that have possible upcoming breakouts are:
USD/JPY - watch for a breakout above 112.99. Set a buy entry alert at
112.89.

GBP/USD - watch for a breakout below 1.8661. Set a sell entry alert at 1.8666.

USD/CHF - watch for a breakout above 1.2201. Set a buy entry alert at 1.2191.

EUR/CHF - watch for a breakout above 1.5557. Set a buy entry alert at 1.5547.

GBP/CHF - watch for a breakout above 2.2781. Set a buy entry alert at 2.2771.

CAD/JPY - watch for a breakout above 100.66. Set a buy entry alert at 100.56.

GBP/JPY - watch for a breakout above 211.02. Set a buy entry alert at 210.92.

EUR/JPY - watch for a breakout above 144.06. Set a buy entry alert at 143.96.

CHF/JPY - watch for a breakout above 92.81. Set a buy entry alert at 92.71.


Currency Pairs with Unlikely Upcoming Breakout
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At 20:00 on May 24, 2006, the pairs that have no significant upcoming breakouts are:
EUR/USD - watch for a breakout above 1.2780 but don't expect it. Set a buy entry alert at
1.2780.

More analysis to continue later tonight.

Wed May 24th 2006 - Review of Yesterdays Activity

I caught two successful trades last night. One was EUR/JPY and the other one was EUR/USD.
I missed an opportunity to buy GBP/USD. It had moved too much by the time I noticed it. Tonight, I will have alerts in place for any currency pairs I expect to purchase.

Recap:
EUR/JPY: I bought it long at 143.441 and sold it for 143.865. I made a nice 43 pips on that one. I closed it a little early. In fact, after I closed it, it jumped another 12 pips but then sank heavily so I think that was a good move on my part.

EUR/USD: I had estimated a sell short point at 1.2842 but I didn't have any alert to notify me. By the time I noticed it, it was 1.2764. I missed that mark by a long shot! But I got in. I closed it at 1.2742. It is currently at 1.2766. I made 22 pips in about 1 hours time. If I had caught the beginning less than 60 minutes earlier, I could have made 100 pips or 5 times my actual profit. That will teach me for not setting alerts!

GBP/USD: This played out at the same time as EUR/USD. I estimated a sell short entry point of 1.8818 but I didn't notice it till the price was around 1.8776. That was too much of a gamble for me to take. But the sell-off point I would have taken profit would have been between 1.8675 and 1.8685. So for calculations, I take the worst case and use 1.8685. That would have given me a profit of 133 pips. If I had my alerts set properly, I would have made at least 100 pips. That hurts!

So I have learnt a valuable lesson from yesterday's trading session. I made 65 pips total yesterday but I could have easily made 243 pips or almost 4 times my actual profit if I had set up alerts and followed up on them right when they occured. What a hard lesson that was!

PIPS Recap:
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EUR/JPY + 43
EUR/USD + 22.
======================================
Weekly total : +65
Monthly total: + 65
Running Total: +65 pips.
======================================
Equity growth weekly: 2.22%
monthly: 2.22%
Total Equity growth: 2.22%
APR (yearly) = 115.44%
======================================

*** Equity growth figures are based upon compounded principle meaning that
each weeks starting point for the calculations is the preceding weeks end-point.
As an example, if I start with $100,000 in week zero, after 52 weeks with the above
figures, I would accumulate $280,033 which represents a real APR of 280%.

Where can you get a return of almost 300% on your money in one year?
Nowhere that I am aware of that is legal. And these figures are conservative.
I intend to make much more than 2.22% on average per week. If I had watched my alerts, I could have made 8.3% which results in a return of approx. 6319% due to the miracle of compounding. That means $100,000 invested for one year would return $6.3 million dollars after just one year. Amazing! Can I do it? Watch my blog to find out!

6319% return on my money in one year! That is my goal.

Introductory Post

Hi,
My name is Martin and I have studied Forex for some time now. I decided I need a way to allow anyone to verify my forex price predictions so I have set up this blog. I plan to add to the blog on a daily basis. If you find my information useful or have a suggestion for imporving it, please let me know. My goal is to predict price movements reliably and that which results in a good return on investment over days, months, and years. If you have some information about forex you would like to share, feel free to do so.